Trade Policy as an Exogenous Shock: Focusing on the Specifics

This paper proposes a novel strategy for identifying the effects of import competition on economic outcomes that avoids standard concerns related to endogeneity trade policy and provides consistent measure exposure over time. Conditioning level tariffs, our approach exploits cross-industry differences in relative importance specific rather than ad valorem tariffs. As they are expressed per unit terms as share value, effective protection provided by given tariff varies with price levels. Using digitized line data between 1900 1940, we relate inflation-driven changes imports labor market full count U.S. census. We show predicts growth at both industry county level. an instrument, reduces force participation traded sectors during this period. Labor widespread but fall most heavily those little experience or fewer outside options: young, seniors, rural areas.